So, with Ray out of the mix for this one he was kind
(naïve?) enough to give the reigns over to me (Scott) to draft the post for
this game. Before I get started, just to
be clear, you’re going to miss the well thought out literary wit and
subsurface-level humor that Ray provides; I’m not going to attempt to be
him. I’m sorry. I will, however, offer a, perhaps, different
perspective on the game and on moving forward through the remainder of the
year. Something we all know is, this
year feels different, regardless of how near-sighted my perspective is vs. more
tenured guys on the team. I’m not going
to pretend to be a vet, but I will share my thoughts, unabashedly so at times,
but in a more general way and without singling anyone out.
GAME SUMMARY
The game started out in typical fashion—a little bit late, a
little bit overcast, but with a moderate level of optimism having come off that
epic(?) comeback against the Ghosties in the previous outing. Goddamn what a fun fucking game that was,
right? Ray did a phenomenal job of providing
an overview there so I won’t bother rehashing IT, but damn, definitely worth a moment to pause and
reflect on that again… so good.
That optimism got us going in the top of the first. Pat singled, Rickey moved him to second, and Large
singled him in. Small ball at it’s
best. Holy shit… we’re scoring early…
that’s neat. We’re onto something
here. Two batters later we were out of
the inning with the one run. That’s
cool, though. One run per inning is
solid… I’ll take that all day long.
That optimism quickly vanished, though. The Nobles answered back with two or three
(don’t remember) of their own in quick succession. With DJ on the mound I don’t think it was his
fault, though, and I remember him having to get about 5-6 outs that
inning. I don’t remember what exactly
went wrong now, unfortunately, and again, this isn’t about calling people out
anyways. From my perspective behind the
dish, it’s tough to see your boy making good pitches, getting the ball on the
ground, and something unfortunate happening.
That slow walk back up the mound knowing that you should be walking off
the field is almost painful to watch, for me at least. When you’re catching, or fuck, wherever
you’re playing, but especially when
you’ve got that constant back and forth that a catcher has with his pitcher,
kinda having a full-blown discussion from pitch to pitch without saying a word,
just a nod, makes that shit painful. DJ
pressed on. I was proud. The pitches didn’t get erratic, he kept
hitting the zone, putting the ball where I was generally calling it, and
eventually got out of the inning. A
simple nod between the catcher and pitcher is all you need when you get back to
the bench to let him know you know he did his job. Btw, fuck being a pitcher… I couldn’t do
it. Kudo’s to everyone who has ever
pitched on the team… I simply don’t have the mental dexterity.
Fast forward to the top of the 3rd.
R-Mac and Kev make two quick outs. My pads haven’t come off… starting to grab my
gear. Oh, hey, Shaun gets on base. That’s cool.
I head out. I get on base. That’s cool too. Pat comes up after me, he gets on base. Well, damn, this could be something! Rickey steps up to the plate-- and really, is
there anyone else you have more confidence in to put the ball in play in that
moment? There’s two outs, though, and a
force everywhere… odds are definitely not in our favor. What happens, you ask? A fucking moonshot over the left fielders
head to score everyone. Dude, so
good. Rickey later told me the he
overheard the left fielder yelling at his teammate that he’d never seen
[Rickey] hit a ball that far. It was far,
I’ll give him that, but this is Rickey we're talking about... back the fuck up. Standing at second it just seemed to have all the right stuff... backspin, power, sex
appeal, idk, things! But this left
fielder obviously didn’t see Rickey hit that go ahead shot against the
News. BTW: Let’s be that
team again… that swagger we had there was unreal.
That was the end of the scoring. For the entire game. No more runs.
The Nobles didn’t have the greatest (no offense) pitching, but for whatever
reason we just couldn’t string ‘em together like we should. Looking at the book right now, and this is
sort of amazing, but it looks like we only had four hits the rest of the
game(!!!). A couple walks here and
there, but we only got a guy to second three times the rest of the way. That’s simply not going to get it done. We know this, though, we all know.
Over the remainder of the game the Nobles put a couple more
runs on the board here and there. They
never had a blowout inning, but somehow ended up with 10 to our remedial
4. It kind of just seemed like we lost
after the Nobles took back the lead; it seemed like we gave up a little. Everyone was trying, but still, that’s part
of the difference this year is that sort of, oh yeah, lets start thinking about
what we’re doing after the game now even though it’s the 6th and
there’s still a lot of ball to
play. Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t
think so. Confidence seems a bit lower
this year.
A Couple Highlights Worth Noting (there really were
some!)
Rickey's epic shot, of course. Read above if you forgot, dummy.
First, DJ pitched five pretty solid innings. I think he gave up 2 earned, and the rest
were the result of an error. He was
looking solid from my view behind the plate.
R-Mac finished the game out and pitched really well,
too. Same story here, just a couple
earned and several more unearned.
One thing I really liked was when R-Mac grabbed a slow
dribbler up the middle with a guy on first, and threw it to second but it went about four feet over the guys head at second. Anyhow, Pat was in center and saw the play forming from
afar. Pat was already hustling in before
the throw was made and was there to quickly back the play up, keeping the runner at second. I fucking love that!
Sort of along the same lines as Pat’s backup play, and there’s
a kind of takeaway here. During one of
my mound visits, while a guy was on second, I offered a quick reminder to DJ to
get behind the plate if the ball were to get through the infield; to backup the throw
home. Sure enough, shortly thereafter
there was a throw home that sailed over my head and DJ caught it without
missing a beat. This is especially
important when there’s such a far backstop like there is at Big Rec. Every other time DJ was there to backup the
throw for the rest of the game. I get so stoked on that stuff, and not to patronize, but I it's rad to see someone apply shit like that so quickly. The takeaway here is, there is always something for everyone to do on
every single play. Pat proved it by holding
the guy at second on the throw from R-Mac, and DJ proved it here. If you don’t know what you’re supposed to be
doing, ask, and for those who do, offer a quick reminder to your comrades. Those little things will payoff.
Also worth mentioning was BC’s throw home to get the guy attempting to score from second (I think he started at second, at least).
He was called safe but BC definitely
got him . I had the plate completely
blocked. He was out, blue-- you blew that one.
Anyways, the lightly hit ball made its way just in front of a hustling BC. Once BC grabbed it, and with all his momentum
still moving forward, he sort of stumbled and threw for a surprisingly accurate
throw home. I say “surprisingly” because
it was on the money after a super off-balance throw(did he fall down afterwards?)
Too bad about the call… again, we definitely got him.
Perhaps the play of the game came from Kevin in right
field. After fielding the ball in right, Kevin made a super heads-up play to throw to
first without missing a beat. Kev woulda had the guy if Mike was able to scoop it. Mike scoops everything, though, so it's hard to fault him on this one, but damn, that would have been the icing on the cake.
Rad play to see unfold, Kevin.
Really heads-up stuff. So stoked on that.
Last but not least, and this just goes in the funny
department, but Miles’ pick at first on a throw from Zack(?) at third (might
have been Rickey… don’t remember). It
was a long throw and touched just ahead of Miles’ extended glove and partially
extended foot (stretch more, thanks).
Anyways, after it hit the ground it landed squarely in Miles’
glove. The best part about this is
nobody was more surprised than Miles that he caught it. He didn’t seem to believe that he could be that type of player. Word of
advice moving forward-- act like you belong, my friend… act like you belong.
That’s about it for the game. I wish there was a lot more to write about
but there really wasn’t. It was a sort
of uneventful game when all was said and done.
Rickey’s three-run double changed things for us in the game, and it
kinda seemed like we were going to start becoming who I know we are, but it
slowly/quickly fizzled out.
10-4 was the final score.
We’re back under .500 for the year.
We’re scraping by for a playoff spot and every game from here on out is literally super important. Not only to win, but to increase that run
differential. Step on the gas from here on
out or go home early. I’ve planned October
around the playoffs. I suggest each one
of you do the same. Get that swagger
back.
MOVING FORWARD
Everyone has their ideas about what’s “wrong” this year,
rather, what needs to be improved upon (we all reside in the excessively PC Bay
Area after all). Most of what I hear from
guys goes something along the lines of this, “I don’t know, but we just need to
reduce the number of errors, not walk 10+ guys a game, hit better, and stay focused”. I think those
generalizations are true, at least for the most part. The problem is, what do you do with knowing
what are affectively symptoms of the disease that is losing, sometimes disgustingly
so, and do something with it; how do we manifest more runs scored/less runs against,
from rhetoric? This is a question I’ll attempt
to answer, rather, offer my humble opinion on as a second year player who
realizes he’s just lucky to be on the team-- cue (any) sad Tim Robbins movie.
HITTING | USING WHAT WE GOT
As far as hitting better, I don’t know. Fuck. Don’t swing at shit pitches and be a
better overall human being(?) I don’t
fucking know, man, I can’t hit for shit this year so you’re asking the wrong
person. Oh, you weren’t asking? Ok, cool, but why not? Hitting is important, ya know? Because you’ve got better things to do with
your life and I’m the only one who feels more shame than lil’ Barron when he
tries to clap after I strike out? OK,
you’ve got a point.
What I do know (slash “think”) is that, regardless of how
much we’re collectively not hitting, there’s enough accumulated data over the
last 13 games to start to weigh some of those factors when developing the
line-up. Meaning, even though we may
have… ummm… room for improvement(?) in the hitting department, we can at least
optimize our lineup. I think we’ve sort
of adopted the Joe Morgan train of thought on how a lineup should be put
together instead of listening to Brad Pitt.
There’s enough statistical analysis out there to prove that not only is
Brad Pitt a perpetual “Sexiest Man Alive”, but you don’t win 20 games in a row
without coupling sex appeal and
analytics . Meaning, maybe we need to
rethink the lineup… completely. Why the
fuck not? Because it could be outright
embarrassing(?), true, but also, what happened when we mixed it up a bit two
games ago(?) #neverforget
There’s a handful of tools out there that support more
feeble minded folks, like myself, in optimizing their lineups using advanced
metrics. I’ve done a little-- not a
lot-- of research over the past ~week sorting out how to best accomplish the
goal of giving ourselves the highest possible chance of accumulating runs. The challenge has been, however, trying to
make this work with a 12-man lineup; everything
online is centered around a nine-man lineup.
I found some common themes when plugging in the numbers, though. For example, almost every time I run the
numbers it optimizes Rickey at the #4 or #5 spot. Surprisingly, BC is optimal in the #2 spot
more often than not. Again the science
isn’t perfect here, but the general thought is that Rickey’s stats dictate that
he should be up with the highest probability that someone will be on base. The #3 spot in the lineup has a statistically
lower probability of coming up to bat with a guy in scoring position than the
#5 guy. I didn’t know this before
digging into it. Perhaps the most
interesting thing I found is that Miles projects as a ~#4 hitter. There are a myriad of other calculations used
to derive this stacking model, but nevertheless, interesting. What this doesn’t take into account is
base-running ability, speed, etc. I
think those things are generally much less important than one would think,
however. Again, I’ve used 9-man batting
order models to develop this, so I don’t know how a 12 man lineup changes
things, although I tend to believe the generalized math and theory wouldn’t
change significantly. I’ve got some
ideas how to calculate a little further out if needed, but with the rotation of
guys we have, it’s a somewhat trivial endeavor.
If you’re really looking to nerd out on this stuff, you can
read some of the theory behind the guys who put some of these calculations
together here:
I played with variations in lineup a lot more than the three
models below; however, I wanted to walk you through a little bit of the thought
process, rather, process of elimination used to get to the conclusion.
Anyhow, the models below derive much of their importance
from OBP and SLG, but not in the traditional sense of evenly weighting each
(50/50); which is effectively OPS. It
considers the importance of OBP and SLG for various spots in the lineup. For example, OBP is about 53% more important
than SLG for a leadoff hitter, and SLG is more important elsewhere in the
lineup. You can read up on it if you’re
bored, but the formula(s) consider several more layers than we typically would.
Taking the top nine guys with regards to number of PA’s over
the course of 2017 (Bobby just missed this list by one PA), here’s how the
lineup calculates out:
RPG
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
4.481
|
Scott W
|
Brian C
|
Mike H
|
Miles A
|
Rickey R
|
Ray M
|
Shaun W
|
Pat L
|
Zack F
|
4.480
|
Scott W
|
Brian C
|
Mike H
|
Rickey R
|
Miles A
|
Ray M
|
Shaun W
|
Pat L
|
Zack F
|
4.479
|
Scott W
|
Brian C
|
Pat L
|
Miles A
|
Rickey R
|
Ray M
|
Shaun W
|
Mike H
|
Zack F
|
4.478
|
Scott W
|
Brian C
|
Mike H
|
Miles A
|
Rickey R
|
Ray M
|
Zack F
|
Pat L
|
Shaun W
|
4.478
|
Scott W
|
Brian C
|
Miles A
|
Rickey R
|
Mike H
|
Ray M
|
Shaun W
|
Pat L
|
Zack F
|
As you can see from the model above, 4.481 RPG (runs per
game) is the most number of runs this lineup is projected to score. I then started to pick and choose batters to
remove from the list to see if I could beat that 4.481. Assuming guys like Rickey, Mike, and BC are
not going to come out of the top 9, I mixed in some of the other guys with 20+
at bats (sorry, Kevin… you’re a statistical God right now) to see if that 4.481
could be beat.. here’s what I got:
Remove Scott and Ray – Include Gantz and Bobby:
RPG
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
4.126
|
Brian C
|
Rickey R
|
Mike H
|
Miles A
|
Bobby R
|
Pat L
|
Shaun W
|
Ryan G
|
Zack F
|
4.125
|
Brian C
|
Rickey R
|
Bobby R
|
Miles A
|
Mike H
|
Pat L
|
Shaun W
|
Ryan G
|
Zack F
|
4.123
|
Brian C
|
Rickey R
|
Pat L
|
Miles A
|
Bobby R
|
Mike H
|
Shaun W
|
Ryan G
|
Zack F
|
4.123
|
Brian C
|
Rickey R
|
Mike H
|
Miles A
|
Bobby R
|
Pat L
|
Zack F
|
Ryan G
|
Shaun W
|
4.122
|
Brian C
|
Rickey R
|
Bobby R
|
Miles A
|
Mike H
|
Pat L
|
Zack F
|
Ryan G
|
Shaun W
|
As you can see, this reduced the number of RPG somewhat
significantly—down to an optimal 4.126
Remove Zack – Insert Bobby
RPG
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
4.648
|
Scott W
|
Brian C
|
Mike H
|
Miles A
|
Rickey R
|
Ray M
|
Bobby
|
Pat L
|
Shaun W
|
4.648
|
Brian C
|
Rickey R
|
Mike H
|
Shaun W
|
Miles A
|
Ray M
|
Bobby
|
Pat L
|
Scott W
|
4.647
|
Brian C
|
Shaun W
|
Mike H
|
Miles A
|
Rickey R
|
Ray M
|
Bobby
|
Pat L
|
Scott W
|
4.647
|
Scott W
|
Brian C
|
Mike H
|
Miles A
|
Rickey R
|
Ray M
|
Shaun W
|
Pat L
|
Bobby
|
4.647
|
Brian C
|
Rickey R
|
Mike H
|
Bobby
|
Miles A
|
Ray M
|
Shaun W
|
Pat L
|
Scott W
|
This lineup maxed out at 4.648 RPG with this model, although
the deviation between each of the five scenarios was minuscule, at best.
I wasn’t able to increase the RPG higher than 4.648RPG with
any other model I tried-- again, I didn’t attempt to include anyone with <20
at bats.
There’s essentially 3 batters left to mix into the lineup to
get to 12 men, but the underlying principal here is we should consider
rethinking how we structure our lineup, at least for a game. It could be an entire waste of time, and a
single game is really an unfair sample size to evaluate whether or not a change
like this would be successful, but if it works… IF IT WORKS(!)… we just might
Moneyball ourselves into the playoffs.
DEFENSE | REDUCE NUMBER OF ERRORS
How do we not make errors?
We’re gonna. Sorry, but we’re
going to have some dumb-fuck errors every
week. It’s part of the game, and with
enough reps the probability rate rises to 100% for any player, regardless of
how good you are or how much offseason work you’ve put in with your yellow bondage-spandex-strength-training-band-thing—a
couple of you know what I’m talking about there. I think it’s important, however, not to let a
small(?) error become something worse.
They’re never “small”, they’re crushing
every time, at least mentally, at least for me because I’m weak. You’re not(?).. Ok, cool. My point is, I think it’s important not to
let an otherwise small error (I know…they’re not, they hurt, but still) turn
what would be a single for the other team into an overthrow with that guy
winding up on third. I use that as an
example, apply it to every play, though.
If we’ve got a double-play op and it’s going to be a tough grab at
second for whatever reason-- perhaps your body is going the complete wrong
way-- take the out at first (or vice versa).
Remember, the overwhelming likelihood is that the next batter, any
batter, is going to get himself out-- let him (or “her”, it’s 2017 after all). The old adage rings true here—don’t try to do too much.
STAYING FOCUSED:
This one is easy. I
think it’s important we’re all able to maintain a sense of composure throughout
the game, regardless of what happens. Not
only is it bad form to, essentially, pout when shit doesn’t go your way,
everyone else feeds off that energy. I
do at least; again, I’m weak. What’s the
reason we all huddle up before a game, when we need a big inning, or when it’s getting
near the end and we just need to get ~6 more outs for the W before a night full
of definitely minding our manners at
Rock? We do that shit because it gets us
more hyped than DJ’s grab bag of goodies; because we feed off each other. The same goes both ways. Don’t bum people out… suck it up. Be somebody.
BE SOMEBODY! Also, to bring up
that fucking epic comeback against
the Ghosties a couple games back again… we aint ever out! Shit happens. Accept it and move the fuck on like a man,
whatever the fuck that means. You know,
though… you know.
PITCHING | REDUCE NUMBER OF WALKS
I’ll keep my thoughts on pitching somewhat brief. Again, I can’t imagine what it’s like to try
and get into the headspace necessary to be an (effective) pitcher. Kudo’s to anyone who has the courage to get
up on the mound.
That said, we have to collectively know when it’s time to
get off the mound. We need to be better
as a team about not letting things get out of hand. Walks tend to come in waves, and when they do,
it’s not only detrimental to the box score, it’s deflating for the entire team
to watch unfold. If I’m catching I’ll
try to do a better job of slowing things down when things start to unravel, and
perhaps give a nod to the bench to start greasing up the next guy. It’s a careful balance of not wanting to get
more inside the pitchers head, while also responsibly planning for the
inevitable, but it’s absolutely
necessary to keep things moving in the right direction. We can’t be afraid, again as a team here, to
huddle up on the mound, have an honest discussion, and start planning for a
pitcher exit. I don’t think this was a
problem in this game, but it’s a problem nonetheless. We’ve got a handful of guys that can pitch on
any given day, and with a week in between games, everyone is pretty much
perpetually fresh. Let’s work on
that. Also, and again this is my humble
opinion, but I think it’s time we start defining rolls, and rotating our core
starters heavily into the mix. We’ve
just got a couple games to go and we need to lean on those we trust. No more time for sugar coating stuff. Let’s fucking win.
Alright dudes.. we have a big game this weekend against the
Dealers. They’re the top team in the
league, at least statistically (we are, get it?... ok, sorry). We need to stay sharp. Every play… every goddamn play matters. Make your outs. Make your at bats count. Don’t try to do too much. Work together as a team. Support one another. Be somebody.
BE SOMEBODY!!!
-Scott
