Moon Shot Falls Short of Moon

So, with Ray out of the mix for this one he was kind (naïve?) enough to give the reigns over to me (Scott) to draft the post for this game.  Before I get started, just to be clear, you’re going to miss the well thought out literary wit and subsurface-level humor that Ray provides; I’m not going to attempt to be him.  I’m sorry.  I will, however, offer a, perhaps, different perspective on the game and on moving forward through the remainder of the year.  Something we all know is, this year feels different, regardless of how near-sighted my perspective is vs. more tenured guys on the team.  I’m not going to pretend to be a vet, but I will share my thoughts, unabashedly so at times, but in a more general way and without singling anyone out.

GAME SUMMARY

The game started out in typical fashion—a little bit late, a little bit overcast, but with a moderate level of optimism having come off that epic(?) comeback against the Ghosties in the previous outing.  Goddamn what a fun fucking game that was, right?  Ray did a phenomenal job of providing an overview there so I won’t bother rehashing IT, but damn, definitely worth a moment to pause and reflect on that again… so good.

That optimism got us going in the top of the first.  Pat singled, Rickey moved him to second, and Large singled him in.  Small ball at it’s best.  Holy shit… we’re scoring early… that’s neat.  We’re onto something here.  Two batters later we were out of the inning with the one run.  That’s cool, though.  One run per inning is solid… I’ll take that all day long.

That optimism quickly vanished, though.  The Nobles answered back with two or three (don’t remember) of their own in quick succession.  With DJ on the mound I don’t think it was his fault, though, and I remember him having to get about 5-6 outs that inning.  I don’t remember what exactly went wrong now, unfortunately, and again, this isn’t about calling people out anyways.  From my perspective behind the dish, it’s tough to see your boy making good pitches, getting the ball on the ground, and something unfortunate happening.  That slow walk back up the mound knowing that you should be walking off the field is almost painful to watch, for me at least.  When you’re catching, or fuck, wherever you’re playing, but especially when you’ve got that constant back and forth that a catcher has with his pitcher, kinda having a full-blown discussion from pitch to pitch without saying a word, just a nod, makes that shit painful.  DJ pressed on.  I was proud.  The pitches didn’t get erratic, he kept hitting the zone, putting the ball where I was generally calling it, and eventually got out of the inning.  A simple nod between the catcher and pitcher is all you need when you get back to the bench to let him know you know he did his job.  Btw, fuck being a pitcher… I couldn’t do it.  Kudo’s to everyone who has ever pitched on the team… I simply don’t have the mental dexterity.

Fast forward to the top of the 3^rd.

R-Mac and Kev make two quick outs.  My pads haven’t come off… starting to grab my gear.  Oh, hey, Shaun gets on base.  That’s cool.  I head out.  I get on base.  That’s cool too.  Pat comes up after me, he gets on base.  Well, damn, this could be something!  Rickey steps up to the plate-- and really, is there anyone else you have more confidence in to put the ball in play in that moment?  There’s two outs, though, and a force everywhere… odds are definitely not in our favor.  What happens, you ask?  A fucking moonshot over the left fielders head to score everyone.  Dude, so good.  Rickey later told me the he overheard the left fielder yelling at his teammate that he’d never seen [Rickey] hit a ball that far.  It was far, I’ll give him that, but this is Rickey we're talking about... back the fuck up.  Standing at second it just seemed to have all the right stuff... backspin, power, sex appeal, idk, things!  But this left fielder obviously didn’t see Rickey hit that go ahead shot against the News.  BTW:  Let’s be that team again… that swagger we had there was unreal.

That was the end of the scoring.  For the entire game.  No more runs.  The Nobles didn’t have the greatest (no offense) pitching, but for whatever reason we just couldn’t string ‘em together like we should.  Looking at the book right now, and this is sort of amazing, but it looks like we only had four hits the rest of the game(!!!).  A couple walks here and there, but we only got a guy to second three times the rest of the way.  That’s simply not going to get it done.  We know this, though, we all know.

Over the remainder of the game the Nobles put a couple more runs on the board here and there.  They never had a blowout inning, but somehow ended up with 10 to our remedial 4.  It kind of just seemed like we lost after the Nobles took back the lead; it seemed like we gave up a little.  Everyone was trying, but still, that’s part of the difference this year is that sort of, oh yeah, lets start thinking about what we’re doing after the game now even though it’s the 6^th and there’s still a lot of ball to play.  Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think so.  Confidence seems a bit lower this year.

A Couple Highlights Worth Noting (there really were some!)


Rickey's epic shot, of course.  Read above if you forgot, dummy.

First, DJ pitched five pretty solid innings.  I think he gave up 2 earned, and the rest were the result of an error.  He was looking solid from my view behind the plate.

R-Mac finished the game out and pitched really well, too.  Same story here, just a couple earned and several more unearned.

One thing I really liked was when R-Mac grabbed a slow dribbler up the middle with a guy on first, and threw it to second but it went about four feet over the guys head at second.  Anyhow, Pat was in center and saw the play forming from afar.  Pat was already hustling in before the throw was made and was there to quickly back the play up, keeping the runner at second.  I fucking love that!

Sort of along the same lines as Pat’s backup play, and there’s a kind of takeaway here.  During one of my mound visits, while a guy was on second, I offered a quick reminder to DJ to get behind the plate if the ball were to get through the infield; to backup the throw home.  Sure enough, shortly thereafter there was a throw home that sailed over my head and DJ caught it without missing a beat.  This is especially important when there’s such a far backstop like there is at Big Rec.  Every other time DJ was there to backup the throw for the rest of the game.  I get so stoked on that stuff, and not to patronize, but I it's rad to see someone apply shit like that so quickly.  The takeaway here is, there is always something for everyone to do on every single play.  Pat proved it by holding the guy at second on the throw from R-Mac, and DJ proved it here.  If you don’t know what you’re supposed to be doing, ask, and for those who do, offer a quick reminder to your comrades.  Those little things will payoff.

Also worth mentioning was BC’s throw home to get the guy attempting to score from second (I think he started at second, at least).  He was called safe but BC definitely got him .  I had the plate completely blocked.  He was out, blue-- you blew that one.  Anyways, the lightly hit ball made its way just in front of a hustling BC.  Once BC grabbed it, and with all his momentum still moving forward, he sort of stumbled and threw for a surprisingly accurate throw home.  I say “surprisingly” because it was on the money after a super off-balance throw(did he fall down afterwards?) Too bad about the call… again, we definitely got him.

Perhaps the play of the game came from Kevin in right field.  After fielding the ball in right, Kevin made a super heads-up play to throw to first without missing a beat.  Kev woulda had the guy if Mike was able to scoop it.  Mike scoops everything, though, so it's hard to fault him on this one, but damn, that would have been the icing on the cake.  Rad play to see unfold, Kevin.  Really heads-up stuff.  So stoked on that.

Last but not least, and this just goes in the funny department, but Miles’ pick at first on a throw from Zack(?) at third (might have been Rickey… don’t remember).  It was a long throw and touched just ahead of Miles’ extended glove and partially extended foot (stretch more, thanks).  Anyways, after it hit the ground it landed squarely in Miles’ glove.  The best part about this is nobody was more surprised than Miles that he caught it.  He didn’t seem to believe that he could be that type of player.  Word of advice moving forward-- act like you belong, my friend… act like you belong.

That’s about it for the game.  I wish there was a lot more to write about but there really wasn’t.  It was a sort of uneventful game when all was said and done.  Rickey’s three-run double changed things for us in the game, and it kinda seemed like we were going to start becoming who I know we are, but it slowly/quickly fizzled out. 

10-4 was the final score.  We’re back under .500 for the year.  We’re scraping by for a playoff spot and every game from here on out is literally super important.  Not only to win, but to increase that run differential.  Step on the gas from here on out or go home early.  I’ve planned October around the playoffs.  I suggest each one of you do the same.  Get that swagger back. 

 

 

MOVING FORWARD

Everyone has their ideas about what’s “wrong” this year, rather, what needs to be improved upon (we all reside in the excessively PC Bay Area after all).  Most of what I hear from guys goes something along the lines of this, “I don’t know, but we just need to reduce the number of errors, not walk 10+ guys a game, hit better, and stay focused”.  I think those generalizations are true, at least for the most part.  The problem is, what do you do with knowing what are affectively symptoms of the disease that is losing, sometimes disgustingly so, and do something with it; how do we manifest more runs scored/less runs against, from rhetoric?  This is a question I’ll attempt to answer, rather, offer my humble opinion on as a second year player who realizes he’s just lucky to be on the team-- cue (any) sad Tim Robbins movie.

 

HITTING | USING WHAT WE GOT

As far as hitting better, I don’t know.  Fuck. Don’t swing at shit pitches and be a better overall human being(?)  I don’t fucking know, man, I can’t hit for shit this year so you’re asking the wrong person.  Oh, you weren’t asking?  Ok, cool, but why not?  Hitting is important, ya know?  Because you’ve got better things to do with your life and I’m the only one who feels more shame than lil’ Barron when he tries to clap after I strike out?  OK, you’ve got a point.

What I do know (slash “think”) is that, regardless of how much we’re collectively not hitting, there’s enough accumulated data over the last 13 games to start to weigh some of those factors when developing the line-up.  Meaning, even though we may have… ummm… room for improvement(?) in the hitting department, we can at least optimize our lineup.  I think we’ve sort of adopted the Joe Morgan train of thought on how a lineup should be put together instead of listening to Brad Pitt.  There’s enough statistical analysis out there to prove that not only is Brad Pitt a perpetual “Sexiest Man Alive”, but you don’t win 20 games in a row without coupling sex appeal and analytics .  Meaning, maybe we need to rethink the lineup… completely.  Why the fuck not?  Because it could be outright embarrassing(?), true, but also, what happened when we mixed it up a bit two games ago(?)  #neverforget

 

There’s a handful of tools out there that support more feeble minded folks, like myself, in optimizing their lineups using advanced metrics.  I’ve done a little-- not a lot-- of research over the past ~week sorting out how to best accomplish the goal of giving ourselves the highest possible chance of accumulating runs.  The challenge has been, however, trying to make this work with a 12-man lineup; everything online is centered around a nine-man lineup.  I found some common themes when plugging in the numbers, though.  For example, almost every time I run the numbers it optimizes Rickey at the #4 or #5 spot.  Surprisingly, BC is optimal in the #2 spot more often than not.  Again the science isn’t perfect here, but the general thought is that Rickey’s stats dictate that he should be up with the highest probability that someone will be on base.  The #3 spot in the lineup has a statistically lower probability of coming up to bat with a guy in scoring position than the #5 guy.  I didn’t know this before digging into it.  Perhaps the most interesting thing I found is that Miles projects as a ~#4 hitter.  There are a myriad of other calculations used to derive this stacking model, but nevertheless, interesting.  What this doesn’t take into account is base-running ability, speed, etc.  I think those things are generally much less important than one would think, however.  Again, I’ve used 9-man batting order models to develop this, so I don’t know how a 12 man lineup changes things, although I tend to believe the generalized math and theory wouldn’t change significantly.  I’ve got some ideas how to calculate a little further out if needed, but with the rotation of guys we have, it’s a somewhat trivial endeavor.

If you’re really looking to nerd out on this stuff, you can read some of the theory behind the guys who put some of these calculations together here:

• http://www.pankin.com/sabr34.pdf
• http://cyrilmorong.com/

I played with variations in lineup a lot more than the three models below; however, I wanted to walk you through a little bit of the thought process, rather, process of elimination used to get to the conclusion.

Anyhow, the models below derive much of their importance from OBP and SLG, but not in the traditional sense of evenly weighting each (50/50); which is effectively OPS.  It considers the importance of OBP and SLG for various spots in the lineup.  For example, OBP is about 53% more important than SLG for a leadoff hitter, and SLG is more important elsewhere in the lineup.  You can read up on it if you’re bored, but the formula(s) consider several more layers than we typically would.

Taking the top nine guys with regards to number of PA’s over the course of 2017 (Bobby just missed this list by one PA), here’s how the lineup calculates out:

RPG	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
4.481	Scott W	Brian C	Mike H	Miles A	Rickey R	Ray M	Shaun W	Pat L	Zack F
4.480	Scott W	Brian C	Mike H	Rickey R	Miles A	Ray M	Shaun W	Pat L	Zack F
4.479	Scott W	Brian C	Pat L	Miles A	Rickey R	Ray M	Shaun W	Mike H	Zack F
4.478	Scott W	Brian C	Mike H	Miles A	Rickey R	Ray M	Zack F	Pat L	Shaun W
4.478	Scott W	Brian C	Miles A	Rickey R	Mike H	Ray M	Shaun W	Pat L	Zack F

 

As you can see from the model above, 4.481 RPG (runs per game) is the most number of runs this lineup is projected to score.  I then started to pick and choose batters to remove from the list to see if I could beat that 4.481.  Assuming guys like Rickey, Mike, and BC are not going to come out of the top 9, I mixed in some of the other guys with 20+ at bats (sorry, Kevin… you’re a statistical God right now) to see if that 4.481 could be beat.. here’s what I got:

 

Remove Scott and Ray – Include Gantz and Bobby:

RPG	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
4.126	Brian C	Rickey R	Mike H	Miles A	Bobby R	Pat L	Shaun W	Ryan G	Zack F
4.125	Brian C	Rickey R	Bobby R	Miles A	Mike H	Pat L	Shaun W	Ryan G	Zack F
4.123	Brian C	Rickey R	Pat L	Miles A	Bobby R	Mike H	Shaun W	Ryan G	Zack F
4.123	Brian C	Rickey R	Mike H	Miles A	Bobby R	Pat L	Zack F	Ryan G	Shaun W
4.122	Brian C	Rickey R	Bobby R	Miles A	Mike H	Pat L	Zack F	Ryan G	Shaun W

As you can see, this reduced the number of RPG somewhat significantly—down to an optimal 4.126

 

Remove Zack – Insert Bobby

RPG	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
4.648	Scott W	Brian C	Mike H	Miles A	Rickey R	Ray M	Bobby	Pat L	Shaun W
4.648	Brian C	Rickey R	Mike H	Shaun W	Miles A	Ray M	Bobby	Pat L	Scott W
4.647	Brian C	Shaun W	Mike H	Miles A	Rickey R	Ray M	Bobby	Pat L	Scott W
4.647	Scott W	Brian C	Mike H	Miles A	Rickey R	Ray M	Shaun W	Pat L	Bobby
4.647	Brian C	Rickey R	Mike H	Bobby	Miles A	Ray M	Shaun W	Pat L	Scott W

This lineup maxed out at 4.648 RPG with this model, although the deviation between each of the five scenarios was minuscule, at best. 

 

I wasn’t able to increase the RPG higher than 4.648RPG with any other model I tried-- again, I didn’t attempt to include anyone with <20 at bats.

There’s essentially 3 batters left to mix into the lineup to get to 12 men, but the underlying principal here is we should consider rethinking how we structure our lineup, at least for a game.  It could be an entire waste of time, and a single game is really an unfair sample size to evaluate whether or not a change like this would be successful, but if it works… IF IT WORKS(!)… we just might Moneyball ourselves into the playoffs.

 

DEFENSE | REDUCE NUMBER OF ERRORS

How do we not make errors?  We’re gonna.  Sorry, but we’re going to have some dumb-fuck errors every week.  It’s part of the game, and with enough reps the probability rate rises to 100% for any player, regardless of how good you are or how much offseason work you’ve put in with your yellow bondage-spandex-strength-training-band-thing—a couple of you know what I’m talking about there.  I think it’s important, however, not to let a small(?) error become something worse.  They’re never “small”, they’re crushing every time, at least mentally, at least for me because I’m weak.  You’re not(?).. Ok, cool.  My point is, I think it’s important not to let an otherwise small error (I know…they’re not, they hurt, but still) turn what would be a single for the other team into an overthrow with that guy winding up on third.  I use that as an example, apply it to every play, though.  If we’ve got a double-play op and it’s going to be a tough grab at second for whatever reason-- perhaps your body is going the complete wrong way-- take the out at first (or vice versa).  Remember, the overwhelming likelihood is that the next batter, any batter, is going to get himself out-- let him (or “her”, it’s 2017 after all).  The old adage rings true here—don’t try to do too much.

 

STAYING FOCUSED:

This one is easy.  I think it’s important we’re all able to maintain a sense of composure throughout the game, regardless of what happens.  Not only is it bad form to, essentially, pout when shit doesn’t go your way, everyone else feeds off that energy.  I do at least; again, I’m weak.  What’s the reason we all huddle up before a game, when we need a big inning, or when it’s getting near the end and we just need to get ~6 more outs for the W before a night full of definitely minding our manners at Rock?  We do that shit because it gets us more hyped than DJ’s grab bag of goodies; because we feed off each other.  The same goes both ways.  Don’t bum people out… suck it up.  Be somebody.  BE SOMEBODY!  Also, to bring up that fucking epic comeback against the Ghosties a couple games back again… we aint ever out!  Shit happens.  Accept it and move the fuck on like a man, whatever the fuck that means.  You know, though… you know.

 
PITCHING | REDUCE NUMBER OF WALKS

I’ll keep my thoughts on pitching somewhat brief.  Again, I can’t imagine what it’s like to try and get into the headspace necessary to be an (effective) pitcher.  Kudo’s to anyone who has the courage to get up on the mound. 

That said, we have to collectively know when it’s time to get off the mound.  We need to be better as a team about not letting things get out of hand.  Walks tend to come in waves, and when they do, it’s not only detrimental to the box score, it’s deflating for the entire team to watch unfold.  If I’m catching I’ll try to do a better job of slowing things down when things start to unravel, and perhaps give a nod to the bench to start greasing up the next guy.  It’s a careful balance of not wanting to get more inside the pitchers head, while also responsibly planning for the inevitable, but it’s absolutely necessary to keep things moving in the right direction.  We can’t be afraid, again as a team here, to huddle up on the mound, have an honest discussion, and start planning for a pitcher exit.  I don’t think this was a problem in this game, but it’s a problem nonetheless.  We’ve got a handful of guys that can pitch on any given day, and with a week in between games, everyone is pretty much perpetually fresh.  Let’s work on that.  Also, and again this is my humble opinion, but I think it’s time we start defining rolls, and rotating our core starters heavily into the mix.  We’ve just got a couple games to go and we need to lean on those we trust.  No more time for sugar coating stuff.  Let’s fucking win.

 

Alright dudes.. we have a big game this weekend against the Dealers.  They’re the top team in the league, at least statistically (we are, get it?... ok, sorry).  We need to stay sharp.  Every play… every goddamn play matters.  Make your outs.  Make your at bats count.  Don’t try to do too much.  Work together as a team.  Support one another.  Be somebody.  BE SOMEBODY!!!

-Scott